An Interesting Exercise
10 September 2004

Okay. As I write, Hurricane Ivan (the Terrible) is headed for Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Ivan’s current projected path would take him across eastern Cuba, then dangerously close to the Florida Keys,
and then up the west coast of Florida. Again?!?!?!? Well, yes. That is the
way it looks at this moment. This would mean that rather than sticking with his west-north-westerly track, Ivan would choose to head north. As far as anyone knows at this moment, that is…

On the other hand, those of us who have paid attention over the decades know that hurricanes are notoriously capricious. Frances recently shocked
the meteorological wise men by gaining a tremendous amount of strength at the last minute and hanging an unexpected right. Despite all our expertise and sophisticated weather-prediction technology, the bottom line is that hurricanes do as they will. They simply meander around (aimlessly, it would seem), wreaking havoc when and where they will. That is their job. And therein lies the problem.

Let us suppose, just for a moment, that Ivan decides he would prefer not
to make a northerly turn. He is quite comfortable on his west-north-westerly track, thank you. Where does that leave us? A straight line projected outward from Ivan’s track over the past several days leads straight to New Orleans. Who knows, other than the Good Lord? It may not be probable at this point, but it is definitely possible.

And that explains why I (residing in the greater New Orleans, LA area)
am seriously considering the possibility of evacuating early next week. Run, Chicken Little, run, the sky is falling in? Premature panic-button mentality?
I think not.

Remember Camille? Even if you are too young to actually remember her, surely the name will be familiar to you, as Camille was only the second Category 5 storm ever to hit the mainland U.S., after a 1935 Labor Day
storm struck the Florida Keys. She made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast at Pass Christian, just west of Gulfport, on the night of 17 August
1969 with winds estimated at 200 mph. (Accurate measurements were not attainable due to failure of wind equipment from the extreme winds). Did everyone on the Mississippi Gulf Coast evacuate, knowing full well that
they were under a category-5 hurricane WARNING? Some did, and some
did not. Go figure. Perhaps the most infamous story is that of the hurricane
party thrown in the Richelieu Apartments, on the Pass Christian beach.
There was nothing left. Nothing. No one*.

Unfortunately, I remember Camille vividly. My sons and I were in Virginia awaiting orders for my husband’s next permanent assignment. He, as fate would have it, was on TDY (that’s temporary duty to you civilian types) at Keesler AFB in Biloxi, MS. We had a very ugly first-hand report of Camille's deadly dance, in addition to the horrors depicted by the media. Pictures of ocean-going vessels resting on what had been US Highway 190 are engraved in my subconscious. Horrendous, incredible images of the remnants left by
an infamously devastating hurricane continue to haunt me, despite the fact
that I would prefer to erase them from my memory bank permanently.

Even if Ivan does not choose to hit the Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast directly, let us not forget that hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions can have life-threatening impacts hundreds of miles inland. All
of us must to be alert to - and prepared for – the probability of heavy rain, lightning, tornadoes, floods and flash floods brought on by these tropical beasts. I, for one, am acting like a Boy Scout. Be prepared, right? Over and over again, for decades now, I have heard, "Whatever you do, do NOT wait until the last minute to make preparations..."

And this brings me, finally, to the point – the exercise. Have you ever considered (seriously) what preparations you would have to make should
you be threatened by a major hurricane?

Just think about it for a moment. What essentials would you choose to take with you (assuming that you decide to get the hell out of Dodge)? There
you are, with an elderly relative who is blind in one eye (and close to it in
the other), deaf in one ear, and who does not get around so well these days. And, of course, your dog. The dog of your life, MissSophieDogAngel. (The fact that she is an angel will definitely help.) Your task is to load up your PT Cruiser with everything you do not wish to risk losing, should the worst
come to pass. What to take, what to leave behind?

Not only that, but how do you secure your home? Buy plywood, call your favorite all-around Mr. Fix-It to install it in appropriate places? Why not?
And what about patio furniture, flower pots and such? These items need
to be dealt with not so much for their protection as for the protection of
what they might strike, should they find themselves cavorting about in hurricane-strength winds like so many leaves from the sycamore tree in
the back yard. Obviously, they need to be moved. Can you do this alone?
Thank God for Mr. Fix-It. (Do hope he is available. Left him voice mail…)

Boggles the mind, does it not? What is Most Important? First the obvious,
I suppose. Files. Important documents, insurance policies, tax records, bills, medication, for sure. What about the PC? Are the back-up discs enough, or
do you attempt to take the CPU?

What, among your (perhaps too many) possessions, do you value most? Think about it. What are you determined NOT to lose, should there be anything within your power to prevent its loss? Irreplaceable photographs,
in all probability. Family mementos, possibly a family Bible. And, if you
are a lover (translation: collector) of books, music and art (I plead guilty), there are a good many books, CDs and framed prints you cannot imagine doing without. Too many. The recipes, thank God, are stored on CD, but what about the HUNDREDS of cookbooks, many of which are out of print now?!?!?!? And then there are favorite clothes, shoes, jewelry, treasured knick-knacks. Way too much. A blivet, as my recently departed Uncle Bud would have said.

And as The Major would say, reality impinges. Very few treasured possessions will be able to make this trip, should it come to that. What
to do? Prioritize, pare down, simplify, eliminate. And then do it again.

An interesting exercise, is it not? And the fun is not over yet. Hurricane
peak season still has 7 weeks to go...

* We were informed recently that there was indeed one survivor of the infamous Richelieu hurricane party: A woman was somehow (miraculously) thrown clear of the destruction of
the building. She was found in a tree four miles distant from what had once been the Richelieu. [MG 2oct04]

(Camille facts courtesy of http://www.srh.weather.gov and http://www.nws.noaa.gov)
 

“And now… we trust the Lord’s leadin’,
but work like it’s all up to us.”
~ Haywood Smith, in ‘Queen Bee of Mimosa Branch’
 

"I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand."
~ Confucius

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"It seems to me that our three basic needs, for food and security and love, are so mixed and mingled and entwined that we cannot straightly think of one without the others. So it happens that when I write of hunger, I am really writing about love and the hunger for it, and warmth and the love of it and the hunger for it… and then the warmth and richness and fine reality of hunger satisfied… and it is all one."
 - M.F.K. Fisher, from The Art of Eating